Sometimes you just gotta laugh at it all:)
Onward to 2009
Onward to 2009
Trading setup for Treasury
The 10 year is now yielding at just over 2%, and with some liquidity starting to move through, (investment grade corporate bonds are now acting much better), risk appetite is starting to increase. At the same time, the US Dollar appears to have topped; another sign of the liquidity crisis ending.
This little pig is looking at the the Ultra Short Lehman 20+ year Treasury Proshares (TBT) in order to take a short position in US treasury.
This little pig is looking at the the Ultra Short Lehman 20+ year Treasury Proshares (TBT) in order to take a short position in US treasury.
Late xmas funnies
Here's a couple of the funniest bits and pieces this xmas season.
Enjoy.
And this is just hilarious!
http://bewareofthedoghouse.com/
Enjoy.
And this is just hilarious!
http://bewareofthedoghouse.com/
What's left to invest in?
This pig is constantly looking for places to make investments, and this isn't the type of market that makes that easy. There are a few, but price does matter. MCD, JNJ, KO all look like places to put some money on a good pull back in the market. What's a good pull back you ask? The MACD on the daily SPX rolling over and starting to re-cross over to the upside would do it for me. That's likely weeks away, although it doesn't necessarily mean these stocks will be at much lower prices.
What these stocks have in common is a mix of US and Global exposure, are users of commodities, have long histories and excellent brand names.
JNJ's chart looks like a low risk entry at this level, however, for a safe entry, we'd like to see the broader market winds at our backs.
What these stocks have in common is a mix of US and Global exposure, are users of commodities, have long histories and excellent brand names.
JNJ's chart looks like a low risk entry at this level, however, for a safe entry, we'd like to see the broader market winds at our backs.
Equity Positions for Q1 2009
We're rolling into Q1 2009, and while we're leaving behind 2008 and all its "historic" events of the year, this Pig has no doubt 2009 will have its own set of perils and opportunities.
As not to get too greedy on the bull or bear case, this Pig's going to operating under a few assumptions that are going to act as a guide through the early part of the year both from technical and fundamental perspectives, being neither overly bullish or bearish.
The market remains range bound between 750 and 1000 on the S&P500, and on a more tighter range at 850 to 920. What we've just seen through late November was a eggnog and Obama rally that's showing its weakness up against major moving averages. Having been roasted a few times in the past, this Pig is finding it difficult to be bullish until the market becomes oversold. At most, we'll don some ETF armor, sharpen some ultra ETF swords and join the marching legions of day-trader mercenaries for a quick push.
On a separate note of observation, this Pig's been around long enough to remember what volatility use to be in "normal" bear markets. The VIX has moved down back towards "historical" bear market territory (25-45) as oppose to murder-death-kill financial crisis readings. Clearly, volatility is not in the bull camp, but we should see a reduction in overall daily/intraday swings. Perhaps this once again leads to the daily charts being useful again and some semblance of a normal market and where rallies can actually get above the 50 day EMA.
On the fundamental side of the ledger; there are quite a few forces pulling in opposite directions. On one hand, the recession, job losses, tight credit are all negatives. And on the other, lower mortgage rates and commodity prices are bullish for early cycle stocks. While there is plenty of debate if what's being done is enough to turn the tide of this recession, this Pig's taking the side that these things do in fact - help! Lower rates, lower gas, do in fact, help the economy. As we chop back and forth, sell all rallies and buy all sell-offs.
As not to get too greedy on the bull or bear case, this Pig's going to operating under a few assumptions that are going to act as a guide through the early part of the year both from technical and fundamental perspectives, being neither overly bullish or bearish.
The market remains range bound between 750 and 1000 on the S&P500, and on a more tighter range at 850 to 920. What we've just seen through late November was a eggnog and Obama rally that's showing its weakness up against major moving averages. Having been roasted a few times in the past, this Pig is finding it difficult to be bullish until the market becomes oversold. At most, we'll don some ETF armor, sharpen some ultra ETF swords and join the marching legions of day-trader mercenaries for a quick push.
On a separate note of observation, this Pig's been around long enough to remember what volatility use to be in "normal" bear markets. The VIX has moved down back towards "historical" bear market territory (25-45) as oppose to murder-death-kill financial crisis readings. Clearly, volatility is not in the bull camp, but we should see a reduction in overall daily/intraday swings. Perhaps this once again leads to the daily charts being useful again and some semblance of a normal market and where rallies can actually get above the 50 day EMA.
On the fundamental side of the ledger; there are quite a few forces pulling in opposite directions. On one hand, the recession, job losses, tight credit are all negatives. And on the other, lower mortgage rates and commodity prices are bullish for early cycle stocks. While there is plenty of debate if what's being done is enough to turn the tide of this recession, this Pig's taking the side that these things do in fact - help! Lower rates, lower gas, do in fact, help the economy. As we chop back and forth, sell all rallies and buy all sell-offs.
Return of the Pig
The Blog's returning in 2009, but I'm going to keep it more sector oriented with a mix of other random topics to my liking. I think a 80/20 split between the stock market and other musings such as cars, food, women or any other topic that catches my eye.
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