the Yuppie Pig

No need for me to comment on the market bounce... I'm in the bull camp until we hit some resistance. This bounce does have a different feel so I think we get at least a little push up from here. Nice volume today on an up day as you can see from the chart, since... well, the Nov bottom.


We are right at a bit of a resistance point here at 725, with another at 740. 60 Minute MACD is just moving into neutral territory here and is not overbought, so its got some more room to run.


On to my positions. Today I did pretty well, but lagged the index being long only 60%. Of course, I did not participate in the blood letting that has been the past 2 months, so that is the price one pays on reversal days like this. But I do operate on a absolute basis and on that regard, today was a great day.

WMT lagged on the way down and will lag on the way up. I'm still bullish and I tend to trade this one independent of the overall market. Still looking to fill that gap.


SQNM - a disaster for me; but the chart is so oversold, I'm willing to give it some room on the "hope" that this rally carries it up. I like the story, but the chart is just smashed.


I swapped out of POT and into MON. Both did well today and I'll move my sell target for MON up to around 80ish.


Outside of equities, I have a short Government Bond position in TBT which I swapped into (really a short 'fear' position) from being long gold (long 'fear' position) for a brief moment. I think with a little continuation from today, we could see a break from the recent consolidation between 44 and 48 to the upside.


On a similar vein of thought, the credit spread should contract which makes LQD and HYG interesting trades. I've never traded either of these products but the thesis makes sense to me and the charts point me in the same direction. LQD is the investment grade bonds and HYG are the high yield bonds. The thesis as I see it, is that with the Citi news of (ahem) profitability in the first 2 months of the year (excluding this and that and this and that) suggests that the world ex financials is still moving. Life still goes on and money is being lent to finance real businesses. After all, banks can borrow at zero and charge a hefty rate! If that is the case, then business are in fact surviving/existing and so will their ability to pay the bonds. Worth looking at, the way I see it.



I'm also interested in energy again. Hopefully we get some weakness tomorrow as energy/commodity stocks have tended to slightly lag the broader market as money rotates through. If the thesis plays out and "business" stocks rally, then one must assume that energy/commodities will be a beneficiary causing their stocks to move as well. Not sure what names I want there, but USO is the obvious one for me.