Early cycle stocks charge ahead

Posted on Thursday, March 26, 2009 by Risk Manager Jeff

I guess the textbook thesis trades are back today, as a slew of the early cycle stocks were up huge today. I basically got shredded on my short consumer spending positions. I plan to wind them down and try to hold a more neutral portfolio. I still think the market need to pull back, but I've been wrong so far. And while I feel intellectually correct, I'd much rather be making money.


One of my few long positions is finally beginning to close the gap. I've been trading around this position for weeks, expecting the gap to close.


I'm not sure how some of the credit positions are going to play out. There's some uncertainty in the amount of private demand for bad bank assets, and the willingness of banks to open up and let go of assets. But right now, LQD appears oversold and is back to levels since before the latest Fed/Treasury cash give-away.

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