the Yuppie Pig

The market had quite the pullback today, which at very least is constructive for a sustainable rally. I'm not expecting an immediate repeal of the rally as things have gotten better (at least for short term stock prices) in the past few weeks. Despite views on the "kick the can down the road" policy this government is taking, off-loading toxic assets off companies and onto the public, is indeed good for companies! - just not the tax payers.

As this pullback plays out, I'll be looking to take in pretty much all of my shorts and look to re-short on an oversold condition. The 60 minute chart has moved into neutral territory from being overbought with today's move down.

With that in mind, I'll be back to front running the market as it hops from thesis to thesis. Right now, the "oil had no fundamental reason for rising" thesis is in play, in stark contrast to last months, "china is buying oil" thesis. I'm neutral on oil until I see real signs of economic recovery, so I'll take the opportunity to buy oil down, and sell it into a thesis rotation that seems to occur every few weeks.


I expect this uptrend to be broken and a good chuck of the gains given back.

In a similar vein, I was looking for some confirmation that at least grains were holding up. It no longer trades lock step with oil, so a bounce off support here makes me consider buying some of the Ag names as they trade back down. I'm going back to Monsanto, and possibly Mosaic. I remain somewhat weary of Potash for the next little while.


Continuing on the search for long positions, I'm back with the Canadian banks. I'd like BNS to break down here, and find some support at lower levels. This would just be a better entry point, and give some time for the 60 minute MACD to give a solid buy signal. Still waiting.


And here's DUG from last night. I sure wish it didn't gap up.


Next time...