the Yuppie Pig

I see two basic outcomes over the next couple of weeks of equal probability.

1) The market continues to push higher into major resistance above from 825 to 875 where I see at best, upward moves are muted. There's likely a very large supply of stocks available from continually bouncing off this range from last October until the middle of Feb.

2) The market breaks down here and enters into a range between here and the lows. Due to the asymmetrical magnitudes of the two scenarios, I have to conclude that I believe it's best to be bearish here, at least until the market is able to digest these gains.


The MACD on the 60 minute chart has rolled over, but has yet to break the uptrend. Will it be this time?


The commercial REITs have really lagged in the "worst of breed" bounce here, so I'll want to push short again whenever the opportunity shows itself. I did manage to take some gains at 24, but I'll likely reload again, as long as the this name does not gap down. (note - the futures are down 9 points near midnight here, so i might not get that chance)


I went long LQD for a quick technical trade. I don't really have a short term bias on credit movements, nor the USD. For me, this is a short rallies, buy dips type market in a tight range. On one hand, the Government is tossing money to drive long rates down, but at the same time, I'm not convinced that the demand is there to soak up bad bank assets. (at least not at prices that banks would be willing to let them go) However, I remain bullish on Canadian Banks and will build a trading position on a pull back.


Also still short a range of "consumer spending" names such as ANF, SBUX, WMFI and HOG. So far, these names are stomping me into the ground, but I've kept position sizes small, limiting damage. I think these names head the way the market does, so I'm holding still, betting on my asymmetrical downside risk view.