the Yuppie Pig

Another huge day for the market - clearly, a major move for the early cycle stocks. If this is the road map the big fund managers are going to take, we should not see new lows in the retailers, financials, or tech stocks. Due to my view that the consumer; while not dead, is quite crippled as they struggle to rebuild their balance sheets as the aging demographic heads into retirement. This actually lends itself to being more bearish "older demographic" consumer discretionary spending items. I'm thinking of shorting HOG again once it rolls over along with the market.


The market itself, I believe, will not test new lows. That is not an endorsement for much higher prices, but merely a feeling of stabilization in the short term, followed by higher inflation (which also inflates stocks). This would be similar to the 2003 jobless recovery. It seems like history, in this regard, is repeating itself. As inflation begins to show itself as the world economy grows, I suspect gold will be a big winner. Just not yet... I do not think we are in an inflationary environment, and recent commodities strength is due to supply side issues as firms cut production, and minor spurts on buying pressure from emerging markets create short term spikes in specific commodity prices.


I continue to be bearish Commercial REITs. Too much dilution, and plenty of maturing debt coming up. Also, this sector has acted horribly in this recent rally off the lows. I'm going to use this run to rebuild shorts which will offset some of the "buy the dips" I do, in other areas, namely in banking, tech and commodities. There's plenty of supply at the 29 level.


So im just waiting for the 60 minute chart to roll over. Or i might not wait.


Back to the theme of consumer spending... to play a roll over in 60 minute chart, I'm considering shorting SBUX again, along with ANF. Both look like there is plenty of resistance overhead viewable on the daily chart.