The pullback part 2

Posted on Tuesday, April 07, 2009 by Iron Chef Dad

The market appears to be pulling back in a rather orderly fashion, and I actually think it is discerning companies with some concept called fundamentals... strange.

The 60 minute chart of the SPX has worked off its overbought condition and is now neutral. I'm still treating this as a trading environment, and that we will not retest the lows.


I closed my position in ANF for a quick gain as I needed to reduce my short exposure. This name (compared to IYR and WYNN) had the most support just under these levels. I also think ANF is fundamentally stronger than IYR and WYNN.


IYR is working out quite nicely as a short. It's a volatile sector, where dilution sometimes makes stocks pop, and sometimes drop. To be fair, if the choice between chapter 11 or 50% dilution needs to be made, I suppose dilution should make the stocks rally. But it's failure to go bankrupt is definitely not a reason to be long. I actually cut a third of my short exposure late in the day to take some gains, but the 24 range is where my target is.


I landed a nice 21 with yesterday's opening short position. It's really pulled back nicely as the squeeze had ended. There is some support coming up, so I'm looking to close this one out very soon.



Despite being positioned bearish, I think this pullback is going to be somewhat shallow, but I'll let the 60 minute chart be my guide. I still like the Canadian banks, and Monsanto. I think the commodities sector is going to come under pressure so I want to see these names quite a bit lower. I'm just not ready to pull the trigger here yet. SMH is another potential long, and TAN is a potential short.

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