the Yuppie Pig

Seven weeks. That's pretty much how long its been going for. No sense in looking and fundamentals, technicals - just the animal spirits.

The SPX is right off its highs and pushing against major resistance in the 870 area. I had incorrectly thought that the market began to roll over on Thursday, but Friday's push above a corrective channel drawn out has to make me reconsider the pattern. However, as I type this, the SPX futures are down a whopping 16 points. I can't see exactly why, but I can see that considerable commodities futures are off. (something about China's stimulus not getting through to earnings?) We'll see if this is just another shallow dip that is snapped up soon enough. I'll say overbought again, but every time I say that, I get gored by the bull.


Here's a perfect example of treading, yet taking on water. Each rally I short, and take a partial position off, only to have the remaining position run me over - each time FASTER than the previous! Rinse and repeat. I'll concede that the credit market is loosening up which will help this sector, and that creditors MUST be more flexible on existing covenants/terms. But this sector has excessive capacity in a new world where personal savings/balance sheets have been torn to shreds.


To add frustration to it all, some of my long positions (MCD and WMT) - consistent growers with stable earnings and cash flows lag the index. Clearly, the defensive names are out of style and money is fleeing quality for the casino's as quickly as possible.



See what I mean? I don't know about you, but when one's life savings is destroyed, a trip to Vegas only mentally helps for the weekend.


Perhaps all those winnings can be spent on new Harley's!



Sector rotation? Okay - noted. But really.. Seven weeks? Something doesn't add up. Net short, and feeling every bit of the Bull's horns.