the Yuppie Pig

We're in another range from 780 to 830. I'm taking a step back to try to evaluate all that is going on. Governments of the world are flooding the financial system of freshly minted cash, which is offsetting the deflationary/credit impaired environment we're in. It's no wonder that gold seems to have trouble moving in one direction or another. We're also seeing horrible headline news in earnings, jobs, etc, offset with expectations on improving credit conditions to help companies. Add in uncertainty with the financials, and the potential for the US consumer to begin a secular retrenchment towards savings. There's certainly a lot going on. The VIX remains above 40, underscoring the level of uncertainty in this market. The futures market is up 12 points on some expectation on easing of mark to market accounting rules. Oh yeah - add in random government announcements to the mix!

Because of this uncertainty and swings from hope to reality, I'm leaning towards trying to keep a fairly neutral portfolio. I'll sell when the 60 minute is overbought, and cover and go long when its oversold. The question now, is what stocks?


With a quick gap down this morning, I closed out all of my shorts except for IYR, which I actually want to build. After all said and done, the slew of my shorts actually netted me a slight gain, but with much worry. In the end, ANF was the only losing trade of the bunch, with the others giving very marginal gains. What a difference 8-16 hours would have made in these positions! ANF, like SBUX, HOG and WFMI all have corrected and now look ready to move up in the short term. I just don't have conviction in these names. In fact, they still look like shorts to me over the next few weeks.


The BKX is forming into a symmetrical flag formation. I might play a break of this pattern in either direction.


I've also got a position in LQD which has a nice yield, and some trading potential.


Depending on how credit spreads play out, HYG looks once again interesting. I tried to start a position in this back in early March, but it ran too quickly for me to get a position. Now it's pulled back and looks like a good way to play a potential loosening of credit,


And with all the cross currents, gold looks a little confused here. Yes, all this stimulus is inflationary... but when? The chart looks good, and perhaps is breaking out of this pattern. But for some reason, the USD remains strong, so its hard to bet on the metal without some type of catalyst.


Some gold stocks look interesting here as well.